Rough Beast

Rough Beast
Grifo Mecanico - Diego Mazzeo

Sunday, November 06, 2011

Black Swan Improvements

In this article I posted this comment:

"If you made your normal distribution a skewed normal with a long right tail you would see a bigger difference (a smaller overlap) between two populations. If the right most population had even a small difference – say in fertility or trait X – this could make sudden, significant increases in the long tail. Since the long tail has smarter, crazier, more depressed, more schizo-affective, more autistic extremes AND they have an increased chance of appearing near each other so that they can trade artistic images between them – in other words… they are primed for intersection with black swans. This is where chaos makes for wide swings in outcomes for small changes in initial conditions. This is more than a just so story since we know the answer. The population on the right took over the biospere, bootstrapped the noosphere and invented computers that could do Monte Carlo simulations."

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